Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.021617 0.024559 0.027765 0.031522 0.035805 0.040540 0.046176
2025-03-02 0.016607 0.020532 0.025193 0.031146 0.038562 0.047513 0.059167
2025-03-09 0.014266 0.018677 0.024231 0.031755 0.041713 0.054485 0.072179
2025-03-16 0.012287 0.016852 0.022878 0.031442 0.043352 0.059405 0.082814
2025-03-23 0.011215 0.016017 0.022621 0.032411 0.046631 0.066653 0.097198
2025-03-30 0.009770 0.014455 0.021137 0.031413 0.046921 0.069615 0.105648
2025-04-06 0.008742 0.013359 0.020163 0.030986 0.047903 0.073552 0.115803
2025-04-13 0.007697 0.012113 0.018818 0.029819 0.047575 0.075383 0.122768
2025-04-20 0.007296 0.011810 0.018868 0.030797 0.050658 0.082759 0.139290
2025-04-27 0.006897 0.011465 0.018803 0.031559 0.053427 0.089840 0.155991
2025-05-04 0.006579 0.011216 0.018860 0.032506 0.056564 0.097780 0.174923
2025-05-11 0.006075 0.010602 0.018245 0.032234 0.057548 0.102078 0.187782
2025-05-18 0.005674 0.010138 0.017862 0.032360 0.059297 0.107980 0.204379
2025-05-25 0.005223 0.009548 0.017206 0.031932 0.060001 0.112065 0.218032
2025-06-01 0.004974 0.009297 0.017131 0.032559 0.062715 0.120108 0.240146
2025-06-08 0.004618 0.008816 0.016586 0.032237 0.063561 0.124639 0.255709
2025-06-15 0.004464 0.008702 0.016718 0.033232 0.067078 0.134703 0.283631
2025-06-22 0.004081 0.008107 0.015875 0.032208 0.066414 0.136297 0.293878
2025-06-29 0.003801 0.007693 0.015347 0.031769 0.066905 0.140275 0.309633
2025-07-06 0.003465 0.007138 0.014492 0.030572 0.065675 0.140509 0.317101
2025-07-13 0.003380 0.007093 0.014670 0.031575 0.069273 0.151424 0.349888
2025-07-20 0.003278 0.007002 0.014745 0.032357 0.072451 0.161707 0.382308
2025-07-27 0.003197 0.006951 0.014900 0.033329 0.076143 0.173478 0.419533